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Risk Assessment

VIRTHUALIS Solutions:

 

The current risk assessment methodology:

Risk assessment proceeds through the following steps:
A Hazard Identification is carried out which identifies the sources and nature of risk and the uncertainty associated with the activity or the phenomena under consideration.
Frequency Assessment is carried out using fault tree analysis (FTA). This is a tree diagram representing the failure event (the “top event”) and the contributing events below. A numerical value will be assigned to the failure event. The frequency of random events is also assessed using expected occurrences from existing risk assessment databases.
Consequence Assessments are carried out using event tree analysis (ETA) which details task sequences, their possible outcomes and identifies (and assigns a value to) the error potential within the system.
Counteraction of Risks is finally performed. This involves thinking out and testing potential measures to reduce risk. Criteria for evaluation include effectiveness and cost of implementing risk measures.

How VR could improve the risk assessment

Hazard identification. VR provides assistance in identifying failure modes in the hazard identification phase. For instance, VR can provide suitable representations of hazards (e.g., hot surfaces and sparks that may ignite a cloud of gas) to be identify by site operators.
Frequency Assessment. VR can provide high fidelity simulations that can be modified as required. For example, external events (weather conditions, day/night, noises, etc.) and plant failures (i.e. mechanical, electrical, e.g. radio, valve, pump failure) can be modelled in a VR environment to examine the uncertainty bounds associated with base-line frequencies of human errors. This will also improve the estimation of frequency assessments (especially of “top events”) for which safety assessors are less confident in their traditional methodologies. On the other hand, VR also assists with the recording (automatically) of data and responses to be used in the assessment process. This provides the ability to calculate and validate the response time required for any action performed (ETA).
Consequence Assessment. VR also provides the only manner of safely viewing the domino affect between plants (also termed “regional risk”).
Risk Management. VR can assist in think out potential safety barriers and changes in operating teams and practices that can reduce risk. For instance, a WHAT I F mode can be implemented in VR to select among different safety barriers to prevent or mitigate accidents. On the other hand, changes in team composition and operating practices can also be examined as alternative risk reduction measures. For instance, tasks can be tried out in different sequences or assigned to two or more operators in order to examine whether the overall risk is reduced. Another example would be the testing of different strategies for making decisions whether to press or not the ESD button. Furthermore, VR can contribute to the integration of the other three safety actions, in particular, the ability to capitalise on the new data resources that stem from training and assessment data. For example, it is foreseen that the risk analysis can provide some input to the training system. It is possible for process operators to use the VR system to observe ‘best practice’ scenarios during dedicated time periods. For instance, operators may observe recorded sessions with their colleagues trying to solve a problem or may attempt to detect errors made by other people.